From December 2021, another warning - "Acting too aggressively on Ukraine may endanger it — and Taiwan"

"Get Ukraine horribly wrong, and a true strategic nightmare could result: two crises, and perhaps two wars, against two great powers at once. Ironically, the United States would have gotten there for fear of facing exactly the dual catastrophes it brought about."

Link here.

Value, Value Everywhere – Disparate Markets Magnify Opportunities

"Most of this spread in the capitalization weighted performance and excessive valuation this year can be attributed to the outperformance of the growth style, which is dominated by the information technology sector. Exhibit 2 shows the forward PE for the S&P 500 Index, the Russell 1000 Growth Index, the Russell 1000 Value Index, the Russell Midcap Value Index, and the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index as compared to their respective PE averages over the last 10 years. As you can see, the value and dividend indices are trading at much more attractive valuations than the S&P 500 Index and the Russell 1000 Growth Index. In fact, the Russell 1000 Growth Index is trading more than one standard deviation above its own 10-year median PE. Said differently, the Growth Index has only been more expensive about 15% of the time over the last 10 years."

Link here.