Monday, January 8, 2024

Moshe Dayan: 'What cause have we to complain about their hatred of us?'

"Dayan recognized what had been done to create the state of Israel. He understood, therefore, what it would take to defend it.

An Undoable Act

This theft of land is, in Arab eyes, an act that cannot be undone. It should be seen that way in Israeli eyes as well, because of its consequences.

In many ways, this is like Henry VIII’s theft of the wealth of the Catholic Church in England. Once taken and distributed, the act could not be undone, much like a murdered man cannot be brought back. In the time of Shakespeare, England was as Catholic as France; only the government and its dependents were Protestant. It took war to settle the dispute, several in fact.

So with this. It seems to me there must a war, or barring that, a return to the status quo ante, in which people in the occupied land are continuously tortured until they die or decide to leave."

Link here.

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Visualizing 60 Years of Stock Market Cycles

How Can Investors Prepare for a Bear Market?

No one knows when a bear market will begin, but there are strategies that investors can use to build a more resilient portfolio.

Diversifying across sectors is one approach. Consider how cyclical sectors, such as tech and real estate tend to rise when the market is on the upswing. By contrast, when the market takes a turn, traditionally more defensive sectors like consumer staples outperform.

Asset class diversification is another tactic. Including bonds in a portfolio typically reduces risk given their stable cash flows and historically low correlation to stocks. International stocks also have a lower correlation to U.S. equities which means that when U.S. stocks are down, these types of assets can help buffer the loss.

The good news is that the S&P 500 has seen +11.5% average historical returns since 1928. Overall, the majority of stock market cycles take place in bull territory both in terms of net return appreciation and length of time by a wide margin.

Link here.