Muslim-Majority Countries Doubt U.S. Motives (4/7/23)

"Twenty years after the U.S. launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom, despite stated U.S. desires, relatively few Iraqis or people living in 12 other Muslim-majority countries view the U.S. as committed to supporting democracy in their region or empowering them to chart their own political futures."

Link here.

Arab Youth Survey

"Now in its milestone 15th year, the annual ASDA’A BCW Arab Youth Survey is largest study of its kind of the Arab world’s largest demographic – its over 200 million youth. The survey presents evidence-based insights on the hopes, attitudes and aspirations of Arab youth, informing governments, the private sector, multilateral institutions and academics on policymaking, business strategy and emerging trends."

Link here.

How Cheap (or Expensive) is the Stock Market Right Now?

"Fair relative to what? Historical data? Other markets? Earnings? Sales? Free cash flow? Interest rates? Taylor Swift concert ticket prices?

The problem in trying to nail down fair value is there are so many different valuation measures to choose from."

Link here.

Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine

"In fact, the evidence is strong that the problem is urgent and I argue that Putin will use a tactical nuclear weapon in his war in Ukraine. Western leaders need not wonder about Putin's nuclear-use red lines and how to avoid crossing them while supporting Ukraine, in my view. Putin is not waiting for a misstep by the West. He has been building the conditions for nuclear use in Ukraine since early in the war and is ready to use a nuclear weapon whenever he decides, most likely in response to his faltering military's inability to escalate as much as he wishes by conventional means. This article will not consider exhaustively what may prompt Putin's decision, but we should not fool ourselves by thinking we can prevent it. Instead, we should prepare responses for a new world in which the nuclear genie is out of the bottle."

Link here.

Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world

Summary

• Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown European citizens that they live in a world of non-cooperation. But their cooperative foreign policy instincts are only slowly adapting to this new reality.
• Europeans want to remain neutral in a potential US-China conflict and are reluctant to de-risk from China – even if they recognise the dangers of its economic presence in Europe. However, if China decided to deliver weapons to Russia, that would be a red line for much of the European public.
• Europeans remain united on their current approach to Russia – though they disagree about Europe’s future Russia policy.
• They have embraced Europe’s closer relationship with the US, but they want to rely less on American security guarantees.
• European leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus around Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia. But they need to understand what motivates the public and communicate clearly about the future.

Link here.

The War in Ukraine Was Provoked

In 1998, William Burns, then the U.S. ambassador to Russia and now the C.I.A. director, sent a cable to Washington warning at length of grave risks of NATO enlargement:

“Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”

Link here.