Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world

Summary

• Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown European citizens that they live in a world of non-cooperation. But their cooperative foreign policy instincts are only slowly adapting to this new reality.
• Europeans want to remain neutral in a potential US-China conflict and are reluctant to de-risk from China – even if they recognise the dangers of its economic presence in Europe. However, if China decided to deliver weapons to Russia, that would be a red line for much of the European public.
• Europeans remain united on their current approach to Russia – though they disagree about Europe’s future Russia policy.
• They have embraced Europe’s closer relationship with the US, but they want to rely less on American security guarantees.
• European leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus around Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia. But they need to understand what motivates the public and communicate clearly about the future.

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