Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world

Summary

• Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown European citizens that they live in a world of non-cooperation. But their cooperative foreign policy instincts are only slowly adapting to this new reality.
• Europeans want to remain neutral in a potential US-China conflict and are reluctant to de-risk from China – even if they recognise the dangers of its economic presence in Europe. However, if China decided to deliver weapons to Russia, that would be a red line for much of the European public.
• Europeans remain united on their current approach to Russia – though they disagree about Europe’s future Russia policy.
• They have embraced Europe’s closer relationship with the US, but they want to rely less on American security guarantees.
• European leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus around Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia. But they need to understand what motivates the public and communicate clearly about the future.

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The War in Ukraine Was Provoked

In 1998, William Burns, then the U.S. ambassador to Russia and now the C.I.A. director, sent a cable to Washington warning at length of grave risks of NATO enlargement:

“Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”

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Visualizing the Assets and Liabilities of U.S. Banks

This infographic visualizes all of the deposits, loans, and other assets and liabilities that make up the collective balance sheet of U.S banks using data from the Federal Reserve.

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Why Are We in Ukraine?

"From the early Nineties, when Washington first raised the idea of NATO expansion, until 2008, when the U.S. delegation at the NATO summit in Bucharest advocated alliance membership for Ukraine and Georgia, U.S.-Russian exchanges were monotonous. While Russians protested Washington’s NATO expansion plans, American officials shrugged off those protests—or pointed to them as evidence to justify still-further expansion. Washington’s message to Moscow could not have been clearer or more disquieting: Normal diplomacy among great powers, distinguished by the recognition and accommodation of clashing interests—the approach that had defined the U.S.-Soviet rivalry during even the most intense stretches of the Cold War—was obsolete. Russia was expected to acquiesce to a new world order created and dominated by the United States."

The whole piece is awesome.

The Ukraine-Russian war didn't have to happen.  The U.S. and NATO wanted it.  They're responsible for all the destruction it's caused.

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A list of recent high-profile shootings in the United States

The attack is the country’s 22nd mass killing — in which four or more people died, not including the assailant — of 2023, according to a database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University.

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Where You Need More Than $1 Million To Retire

As the golden years near, many become hyper-focused on how big a nest egg they need to retire. Not surprisingly, the size hinges largely on where that nest is needed, as the cost of housing and other living expenses vary widely by locale.

Our latest LendingTree study calculates how much people need to retire in each U.S. metro using different methods: based on the amount retirees spend in a year and on the median annual earnings of people ages 55 to 64.

We found that it takes more than $1 million to retire with an average lifestyle in nearly 40% of the 384 U.S. metros based on the former assessment, but significantly less on the latter assessment. (By significantly, we mean just one metro.)

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Breakaway Momentum call on 1/12/23

We'll see.